'VERY DIVIDED': Trump continues aggressive reforms to Fed Reserve

Group 1 - The stock market is reaching record highs, while the bond market anticipates a quicker return to neutral interest rates, with stable inflation expectations [2][4] - Productivity growth is a significant factor driving market optimism, with business capital expenditures (capex) increasing nearly 10% at an annual rate since January [4][3] - The AI boom is contributing positively to GDP growth, with strong spending on information processing equipment and software, outpacing consumer spending in the first half of the year [4][5] Group 2 - There is criticism of the Federal Reserve's growth estimates, which are perceived as overly pessimistic at around 1.8%, suggesting a disconnect with current productivity trends [6][7][22] - The potential for GDP growth to reach 4% is highlighted, with calls for the Fed to acknowledge and adjust their projections accordingly [9][10] - The Fed's internal divisions are noted, with differing opinions on interest rate cuts and overall economic outlook, indicating a lack of consensus among members [19][20][18] Group 3 - The housing market is showing signs of weakness, with a decline in housing permits and contracting construction employment, raising questions about the sustainability of GDP growth [14][15] - The market's reaction to Federal Reserve communications suggests uncertainty, with homebuilder stocks initially rallying but then selling off, reflecting mixed investor sentiment [16][17] - The ongoing debate about the Fed's independence and the influence of political appointments on its policies is emphasized, with suggestions for reforming the tenure of Fed governors to allow for more alignment with elected officials' policies [21][26][22]