星展银行：美联储降息幅度将低于市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of DBS Bank, Taimur Baig, predicts that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates twice in 2025 and once in 2026, contrary to market expectations of three rate cuts in both years [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies and immigration controls are tightening the labor market, contributing to inflation risks [1] - Strong financial conditions for households and businesses, along with a surge in AI-related energy demand, are also factors driving inflation [1] - The ongoing rise in the stock market is expected to further exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The current rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to stall after a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points [1] - The mainstream view of a terminal rate of 3.5% by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to be shaken due to heightened inflation pressures compared to a year ago [1]