刘晓曙解读“反内卷”：本质是打破零和博弈，推动高质量价值创造

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved into a strategic issue affecting the overall economy of China, particularly as the country transitions to high-quality development. This phenomenon is characterized by supply-demand mismatches and disorderly competition in various industries, which hinder productivity and pose significant challenges to achieving high-quality growth [1][2]. Group 1: New Trends in "Anti-Involution" - The current "anti-involution" movement exhibits three new trends compared to the previous supply-side reform 1.0: upgraded goals, expanded governance targets, and evolved policy tools [3][4][5][6]. - The upgraded goals focus on quality improvement and breaking the cycle of involution, shifting from merely reducing excess capacity to establishing high-quality competition rules applicable to all market entities [4]. - The governance targets have expanded to include not only traditional industries but also emerging sectors and platform economies, addressing issues of blind investment and vicious competition [5]. - The policy tools have transitioned from administrative commands to rule-making and macro-guidance, emphasizing the establishment of legal frameworks and market mechanisms to facilitate industry upgrades [6]. Group 2: Impacts on the Banking Industry - The banking sector is experiencing "involution" due to insufficient effective demand and a continuous narrowing of net interest margins, leading to a reliance on "involution" as a survival strategy [2][13]. - The short-term response to this "involution" is characterized by a focus on expanding scale to counteract profit pressures, which can lead to a vicious cycle of price wars and increased operational risks [14][15]. - Long-term, the "involution" in banking can compress profit margins and increase operational risks, ultimately affecting the stability of the financial system and its support for the real economy [15][16]. Group 3: Solutions for the Banking Sector - To effectively counter "involution," banks must adapt their customer structures to align with the changing economic landscape, enhancing risk management capabilities and focusing on new economic sectors [16][17]. - The transition from traditional economic sectors to new ones is essential for banks to escape the "involution" trap, as the demand from traditional sectors continues to decline [16]. - A shift towards a more diversified customer base and improved risk management will enable banks to better serve the evolving needs of the economy and enhance their sustainability [16].