李雅兰：“十五五”期间中国城市燃气行业仍具广阔发展空间

Core Viewpoint - Natural gas will continue to play a significant role in the future energy structure amid the ongoing global energy transition, with substantial development potential in China's urban gas industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Global Natural Gas Market - Global energy demand is showing a clear upward trend, with natural gas leading fossil fuel consumption. By 2024, global natural gas consumption is expected to reach 4.21 trillion cubic meters, marking a historical high [1]. - The global natural gas market supply is becoming more relaxed, with international oil and gas companies increasing investments in the natural gas sector. By 2030, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply capacity is projected to reach 600 million tons, which will drive a general decline in global natural gas prices [1]. Group 2: China's Natural Gas Industry - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's natural gas industry has developed steadily, with natural gas consumption maintaining robust growth. The share of natural gas in the primary energy structure has increased to 8.8% from 2020 to 2024 [1]. - However, the growth rate of urban gas consumption in China has slowed, transitioning from rapid growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan to a more stable development phase [1]. Group 3: Opportunities in Urban Gas Sector - There remains significant potential for "coal-to-gas" initiatives in China's urban gas sector, particularly in the top 12 cities by GDP, which still consume approximately 320 million tons of coal, indicating a generally low share of natural gas in the primary energy structure [2]. - Natural gas power generation has considerable growth potential, as its carbon emission intensity is only half that of coal. The current share of gas-fired power in the overall power generation structure is still relatively low, suggesting a need to accelerate the development of the gas power industry [2]. Group 4: Pricing and Safety Concerns - The upstream natural gas pricing mechanism has been largely streamlined, but there are still issues with price transmission in the downstream sector, leading to significant losses for many urban gas companies. There is a call to implement a pricing mechanism that allows natural gas to return to its commodity nature during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2]. - Urban gas companies are urged to prioritize safety and ensure gas supply security while accelerating strategic transformation and engaging in the new energy market competition [2].