债市日报：9月18日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a downturn on September 18, with government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields rising by 1-2 basis points. The central bank's recent liquidity injections are expected to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.17% to 115.620, the 10-year contract down by 0.05% to 108.080, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts also declining slightly [2]. - The interbank yield on major bonds rose slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.6 basis points to 2.071%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.45 basis points to 1.7775% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.99 basis points to 3.545% and the 10-year yield up by 6.12 basis points to 4.089% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also saw a general increase, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain experienced slight declines [3]. Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 1-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.3784%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 1.78. The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.7393% and 1.95%, respectively [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 487 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 195 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 3.1 basis points to 1.514% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that expectations for the central bank to resume government bond purchases have increased, providing some support for interest rates amid market adjustments and rising government debt supply pressures [6]. - Long-term views suggest that the core logic is shifting towards the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy orientation, with interest rates expected to remain low to alleviate fiscal pressures [7]. - Huachuang Fixed Income highlighted a liquidity gap of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in September, indicating a seasonal high level, and anticipates that the central bank will take active measures to stabilize liquidity [7].