美经济处于放缓趋势 沪铜后市空间不宜看得太高

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by macroeconomic factors and mixed demand and supply dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, but the reduction is modest, leading to a decrease in preemptive market expectations [1] - Jerome Powell emphasized that there is no broad support for larger rate cuts and that the Fed's policy will remain independent of political influences, resulting in a decline in market risk appetite [1] Supply Dynamics - In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons to 1.1715 million tons [1] - It is anticipated that five smelting plants may undergo maintenance in September, potentially leading to a further decrease in domestic electrolytic copper production by 5.25 million tons [1] Demand Dynamics - The domestic copper market is showing significant structural differentiation in demand, with traditional consumption sectors experiencing weakness [1] - Although air conditioning retail sales continue to grow, production data for September has declined [1] - The real estate sector is slowly recovering but still shows weak demand [1] - Strong demand is noted in the new energy vehicle and power sectors, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.5 million units in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 29% [1] - National cumulative power generation capacity has increased by 18.2% year-on-year, providing strong support for copper demand [1] Market Outlook - Future market expectations should be tempered, as there is a risk of buying on expectations and selling on facts [1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, and recession risks cannot be ignored, which may limit upward price potential [1]