华安基金解读9月美联储议息会议：如期降息25bp，年内或再降息2次

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a focus on protecting employment despite rising inflation concerns [1][2][3] Monetary Policy Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates to a range of 4.0%-4.25% reflects a balance towards employment protection, with a forecast of two more rate cuts within the year [1][2] - The voting on this decision saw only one dissenting vote, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve anticipates that the current rate cut will effectively boost economic growth and employment, suggesting a limited scope for future "preventive rate cuts" [3] - GDP forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, while unemployment rate predictions for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 0.1% [4][5] - Inflation predictions remain largely unchanged, with only a slight upward revision of 0.2% for the PCE in 2026 [6] Chairman Powell's Remarks - Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing that future cuts will depend on upcoming economic data [7] - He noted that while the unemployment rate is still low, it has begun to rise, and job growth is slowing, attributing some of this to immigration policies [7] - Powell also mentioned that the impact of tariffs on inflation is diminishing, and service inflation is easing, reducing the risk of sustained high inflation [7] Market Expectations - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, with only one additional cut expected in 2026 [8] - Market expectations align with the Fed's guidance, anticipating a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the next two years [10] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Investment in gold ETFs is suggested as a favorable option due to the low opportunity cost of holding gold in a declining interest rate environment [12][14] - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, is expected to benefit from overseas rate cuts, attracting both domestic and foreign capital [17][19] - The ChiNext 50 ETF is highlighted for its potential due to a favorable funding environment and strong fundamentals, with a projected net profit growth of 13.88% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [20][22][23] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF is noted for its high dividend yield of 5.9% in a low-interest-rate environment [24][26]