Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by signs of slowing economic activity, weak job growth, and rising inflation, with the labor market being a primary concern for policymakers [1][4] - The Fed's median forecast indicates a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [9] Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly lower than the revised 79,000 in July and below market expectations [4] - The overall inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [4] - The Fed officials predict a median inflation rate of 3% by the end of the year, despite concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [4][5] Political Context - The rate cut did not alleviate the Trump administration's dissatisfaction with the Fed, as the President had previously pressured for more aggressive cuts [5][7] - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Fed governor and White House economic advisor, cast the only dissenting vote against the rate cut, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [7] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the need to balance rising inflation and a weakening labor market, posing a challenge for policymakers [5][7] Future Outlook - The Fed will carefully assess subsequent data and changing economic conditions before making further adjustments to the federal funds rate [8] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, with fewer than two rate hikes anticipated in 2025 [9] - The interplay between rate cuts and tariffs may complicate the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation control goals [9]
在“不同寻常时刻”宣布降息 美联储这次能“满足”特朗普吗？
Xin Hua She·2025-09-18 09:11