Big Tech Stocks Mirror Dotcom Bubble But On 'Steroids,' Says Top Analyst: Could Repercussions Be More Pronounced Than 1999 Crash?

Group 1 - GQG Partners warns that the current technology market is experiencing "dotcom-era overvaluation," with high capital spending and weakening fundamentals potentially leading to significant repercussions [1][3] - The report titled "Dotcom on Steroids" argues that the AI-driven boom has created a precarious situation in the tech sector, characterized by rich valuations, increasing macro risks, and deteriorating company fundamentals [2][4] - GQG highlights that capital expenditure (CapEx) in the tech sector is reaching levels comparable to previous market bubbles, raising concerns about the sustainability of such high spending [4][5] Group 2 - The report indicates that big tech companies' CapEx as a percentage of EBITDA is currently between 50%-70%, similar to historical peaks during the telecom and energy bubbles [5] - GQG challenges the notion that today's tech companies are cheaper than those during the dot-com era, asserting that they are actually more expensive on a growth-adjusted basis [6][7] - Data shows that the share of S&P 500 companies trading at more than 10 times sales has surpassed the 2000 peak, indicating widespread overvaluation in the market [7] Group 3 - GQG concludes that there are "better investment opportunities outside the tech sector" due to the identified risks and overvaluation [7] - The report also includes performance data for major tech firms and AI-linked ETFs, highlighting their year-to-date and one-year performance metrics [9][10]