MOS vs. NTR: Which Fertilizer Giant is the Better Pick Now?

Core Insights - The Mosaic Company (MOS) and Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) are leading players in the fertilizer industry, benefiting from strong agricultural market conditions and favorable farm economics, which are driving global fertilizer demand [1][25] - Both companies are experiencing increased demand for potash and phosphate, with prices rising due to supply tightness and strong market conditions [2][25] Group 1: Mosaic Company (MOS) - MOS is capitalizing on strong demand for phosphate and potash, supported by favorable agricultural conditions and a focus on improving its operating cost structure [3][25] - The company is on track to achieve $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already realized $150 million in savings through supply chain optimization and operational cost cuts [4][25] - MOS has completed significant capacity expansion projects, including an 800,000-ton MicroEssentials capacity conversion and a 400,000-ton Hydrofloat project, which will enhance its production capabilities and support long-term growth in Brazil [5][25] - The company generated an operating cash flow of $610 million and free cash flow of $305 million in Q2 2025, with expectations for stronger cash flow in the second half of the year [6][25] - MOS offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.6% with a payout ratio of 49%, indicating sustainable dividends and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 41.6% [7][25] Group 2: Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) - NTR is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, cost reduction initiatives, and strategic acquisitions, with improving fertilizer prices providing additional support [8][25] - The company anticipates an increase in U.S. corn acreage in 2025 and has raised its potash sales guidance to 13.9-14.5 million tons due to strong demand [9][10][25] - NTR is focused on achieving $200 million in total savings in 2025 through operational efficiency and cost-saving initiatives, ahead of schedule on its cost-reduction goals [11][25] - Nutrien reported cash and cash equivalents of $1,387 million at the end of Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with cash provided by operating activities surging 40% to $2,538 million [12][25] - The company returned $0.8 billion to shareholders in the first half of 2025 through dividends and share buybacks, offering a dividend yield of approximately 3.8% with a payout ratio of 66% [13][25] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - MOS stock has increased by 39% year-to-date, while NTR has gained 26.2%, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry, which rose by 19.5% [15][25] - MOS is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.76, representing a discount compared to the industry average of 13.12 [16][25] - NTR is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.79, above MOS but below the industry average [19][25] Group 4: Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MOS's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 16.8%, with EPS expected to increase by 60.1% [22][25] - For NTR, the consensus estimate for 2025 sales and EPS suggests a year-over-year rise of 3.4% and 26.2%, respectively [24][25] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from strong global fertilizer demand, with cost-reduction initiatives expected to enhance margins [25] - MOS appears to have a slight edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate, along with stronger earnings growth projections [25]