【华闻日度观点0918】产量存回升预期，橡胶走弱

Steel Industry - The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is strengthening, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. The demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches, with high demand for plate steel and a low recovery in rebar demand. On the supply side, steel mills are facing narrowing profits, leading to a decrease in overall supply. Plate steel supply remains high, while rebar production has significantly decreased, alleviating supply pressure. Overall, with the arrival of the peak demand season and stricter implementation of industrial policies, the supply-demand contradiction and cost support for steel are expected to gradually strengthen. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to continue a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Iron Ore - The expectations for supply and demand are improving, enhancing price support for iron ore. Steel mills are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in iron ore demand. On the supply side, overseas mine shipments have significantly increased, resulting in a moderate growth in overall supply. Iron ore inventories are stabilizing at low levels, indicating minimal inventory pressure. Overall, with the continuous warming of macro policy expectations and the recovery of downstream demand, the outlook for iron ore supply and demand is expected to continue improving, with prices likely to maintain a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased by 1.9% to 84.7%, with daily raw coal output reaching 1.9 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 44,000 tons. The demand side shows strong rigid support, driven by increased washing plant operating rates and a rebound in iron water production. However, the market is still focused on "anti-involution," and the space for further increases in coal mine operating rates is limited due to strong safety supervision policies. Overall, the coking coal supply-demand structure may be optimized, maintaining a trend of fluctuating strength [2]. Shipping Industry - The European shipping index is currently showing a weak trend. On the spot market, major shipping companies are continuously lowering their quotes, with the average price for a large container around $1,650, indicating a slight discount to the market. The supply-demand imbalance is prominent, with demand entering a low season and a lack of new shipping volume. The average weekly capacity in September has increased by 16% year-on-year, but the scale of empty classes in October is not sufficient to alleviate the oversupply situation. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the index is expected to continue running weakly in the short term [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices have continued to decline. Domestic methanol capacity utilization and output have unexpectedly decreased this week. However, the operating rates of traditional demand products have mostly increased, with significant recoveries in DME and MTBE. The market is expected to maintain a trend of inventory reduction due to pre-holiday stocking and upstream companies actively reducing inventory to avoid accumulation risks during the holiday. Overall, the methanol market is expected to continue a downward trend in the short term, with some support from supply-side reductions and recovering downstream operating rates [4]. Urea - Urea prices have shown a downward trend this week, with capacity utilization and weekly output increasing. The upcoming recovery in production is expected to exceed maintenance, leading to a significant increase in daily output. However, domestic urea demand remains tepid, and the overall supply-demand imbalance persists, with companies facing challenges related to inventory and costs. Without policy changes, urea futures prices are likely to continue fluctuating downward in the short term [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Soda ash and glass prices are experiencing a downward trend. The overall supply of soda ash is decreasing slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.53%. The weekly output has dropped by 1.54 million tons. The glass market is stable, but demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual decline in production and sales. The overall supply pressure for soda ash remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly [5]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are showing a weak trend, influenced by the end of the traditional fuel consumption season in the U.S. and ongoing OPEC+ production increases. However, the inventory of asphalt plants and social stocks continues to decline, which may positively impact prices. The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to drive demand, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions face supply pressures [6][7]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are experiencing a downward trend, with average capacity utilization at 81.9%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased, and demand from downstream aluminum oxide enterprises remains stable. Overall, the caustic soda market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly due to increased supply and limited demand [8]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are declining, with limited demand from downstream sectors. Despite some replenishment activities, the overall purchasing momentum remains insufficient. The supply side is increasing due to more operational facilities, leading to a rise in inventory levels. The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward [9]. Polyester - The polyester market is stable, with supply and demand remaining balanced. The operating rates of PTA and downstream polyester production have increased slightly, but overall demand remains below expectations. The inventory levels of PTA are at historical lows, indicating a tight supply situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost movements [10][11]. Nonferrous Metals - The copper market is influenced by the recent Fed rate cut, with domestic supply tightening due to maintenance at smelting plants. The market is closely monitoring consumption patterns leading up to the National Day holiday, with expectations of increased purchasing from large enterprises [14]. Agricultural Products - The oilseed market is under pressure due to high domestic soybean inventories and slow demand recovery. The cotton market is experiencing price pressure from low demand and high import levels, while the sugar market is facing downward pressure from increased production in India and Brazil [18][19]. Rubber - The rubber market is experiencing a weak trend, with increased imports and stable production levels. The demand from processing plants remains strong, but overall market sentiment is affected by macroeconomic factors [22][23].