Options Corner: FDX Trade Ahead of Earnings

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is expected to report earnings with an adjusted EPS of 3.65 and revenue exceeding 21 billion, reflecting a modest year-over-year growth of 1% despite a significant stock decline of 24% over the past year [1][3]. Company Performance - FedEx's stock has decreased by 24% over the last 52 weeks, while UPS has seen a 35% decline, contrasting with the broader market and industrial sector, which have increased by approximately 17% and 14% respectively [3]. - The company is facing challenges due to a post-COVID shipping slowdown and rising costs attributed to tariffs [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a period of consolidation as it approaches earnings, with key resistance levels identified between 240 and 245 [5][6]. - The moving averages are clustered together, suggesting a sideways movement, while the RSI indicates declining momentum leading into the earnings report [7]. Options Market Insights - The options market is pricing in a potential move of about ±7% post-earnings, equating to approximately $16.5 either way from the current share price of around $227 [11]. - A proposed trading strategy involves a double calendar position, buying a 245 strike call and a 210 strike put, while selling the same strikes in a shorter duration to capitalize on elevated implied volatility [12][13]. Trading Strategy - The strategy aims for profitability within a range of approximately 200 to 255, allowing for flexibility without needing to predict the stock's direction [14]. - The risk profile peaks at either 210 or 245, with a preference for movement towards these strikes for profitability [14][15].