MOD vs. THRM: Which Thermal Management Stock is the Better Buy?

Core Insights - Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) and Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) are both involved in thermal management technologies for the automotive sector, with Modine also serving other markets such as HVAC and construction equipment [1][2] - The analysis aims to compare the fundamentals of both companies to determine which is better positioned to meet investor expectations amid tariff-related uncertainties [2] Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) - Modine has consistently exceeded earnings expectations for the last four quarters, reporting net sales of $682.8 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, a 3% increase from $661.5 million the previous year, driven by strong performance in the Climate Solutions segment [3][9] - The company anticipates a significant volume ramp-up in the second half of the year, projecting full-year fiscal 2026 net sales growth of 10-15% year over year and adjusted EBITDA growth of 12-20% [3][21] - Modine has implemented the 80/20 principle, leading to transformative operational and financial improvements during fiscal 2025 [4] - Recent acquisitions, including AbsolutAire, L.B. White, and Climate by Design International, are aimed at addressing thermal management challenges and expanding into high-growth adjacent markets [5] - Modine announced a $100 million investment over 12-18 months to enhance U.S. manufacturing of data center cooling products, expecting data center revenues to approach $2 billion by fiscal 2028 [6] - The company boasts a high return on equity (ROE) of 24%, significantly above the industry average of 7.2%, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity [7] Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) - Gentherm reported stable revenues of $375 million in Q2 2025, with a 3.8% year-over-year growth in Automotive Climate and Comfort Solutions, outperforming S&P Global's light vehicle production report by 10 basis points [8][11] - The company secured $620 million in new automotive business awards in Q2, raising its 2025 revenue outlook to between $1.43 billion and $1.5 billion [11] - Gentherm is focusing on narrowing the gap in Asia, with 70% of year-to-date awards going to domestic OEMs in China, compared to 50% in the previous two years [10] - The company is diversifying into the medical sector, enhancing its European distribution through a partnership with DUOMED [12] - However, tariffs have posed a challenge, resulting in a narrowed EBITDA margin guidance range of 11.7-12.5% [13] - Gentherm's ROE stands at 9.9%, which, while respectable, is lower than Modine's [13][22] Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Modine shares have increased by approximately 31.5%, while Gentherm's stock has decreased by 11% [14] - Modine is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.62X, close to its five-year mean of 2.72X, whereas Gentherm's forward sales multiple is at 0.73X, significantly below its median of 2.85X [16] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Modine's fiscal 2026 EPS indicates a year-over-year growth of 14.3%, with estimates trending upward [18] - Conversely, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gentherm's 2025 EPS suggests a year-over-year decline of 4.3%, although estimates have also been trending upward [19] Conclusion - Modine is positioned for solid top-line growth with projected double-digit revenue and EBITDA gains for fiscal 2026, supported by strategic acquisitions and investments [21] - Gentherm shows resilience with steady revenues and strong automotive business wins, but its lower ROE and margin pressures from tariffs present challenges [22] - Overall, Modine's stronger financial performance and clearer growth strategy make it a more attractive investment option compared to Gentherm [23]