2 Domestic Auto Stocks to Buy Amid EV Incentive Expiry, Industry Woes

Industry Overview - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry encompasses companies involved in designing, manufacturing, and retailing various types of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, and electric vehicles [3] - The industry is highly consumer cyclic and is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements and rapid digitization [3] Key Themes Shaping the Industry - New vehicle sales remained strong in August, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate exceeding 16 million, but rising vehicle prices and tariffs may slow momentum as affordability weakens [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut may not significantly alleviate high auto loan costs, with meaningful relief not expected until 2026 or later [5] - Electric vehicle sales surged to a record 146,332 units in August, driven by the impending expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit, but demand may sharply decline once the incentives are removed [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 147, placing it in the bottom 40% of approximately 250 Zacks industries, indicating a negative earnings outlook [7][8] - Despite the overall weakness, the Domestic Auto industry has outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and sector over the past year, gaining 31% compared to 24% for the sector and 18% for the S&P 500 [10] Current Valuation - The industry is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 45.27X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 18.34X and the sector's 22.83X, reflecting the debt-laden nature of automotive companies [13] Company Highlights Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) - Blue Bird is a leader in low- and zero-emission school buses, with over 20,000 vehicles in operation and a strong demand for its products [17] - The company delivered a record 271 electric buses in the last quarter and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $205-$215 million, indicating a margin of approximately 14.5% [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD's fiscal 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 8% each, with bottom-line estimates suggesting improvements of 17% and 3% respectively [19] Xos, Inc. (XOS) - Xos specializes in fully electric, zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks, with a growing customer base including major operators like UPS and FedEx [23] - The company reported a 50% year-over-year increase in deliveries, with revenues climbing 18.7% to $18.4 million, and generated positive free cash flow of $4.6 million [24] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOS's 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 3% and 25.5% respectively, with bottom-line estimates suggesting improvements of 46% and 27% [25]