全球风险偏好改善 新兴市场将迎配置窗口

Core Views - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, indicating a "preventive" rate cut aimed at mitigating potential risks rather than entering a prolonged easing cycle [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a "preventive" rate cut, stock assets tend to perform strongly, with emerging markets likely to see a favorable allocation window [1] Impact on Stock Market - Following the Fed's dovish shift on August 22, investors began to heavily bet on a rate cut, leading to a "loosening trade" dominating the U.S. market [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones index rising and reaching new highs, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experienced slight declines [1] - The impact of the rate cut on the market is expected to be a long-term process, despite short-term volatility [1] Bond Market Insights - Current market expectations for rate cuts are already significant, which may lead to a temporary pause in "loosening trades" [2] - Long and short-term U.S. Treasury yields have largely priced in the rate cut, with potential steepening of the yield curve if further dovish cuts occur [2] Emerging Markets Opportunities - The Fed's rate cut opens a window for capital inflow into emerging markets, particularly in Asia, as risk appetite improves globally [3] - Emerging market stocks are viewed as having strong investment value, especially given their valuations compared to developed markets [3] - The potential for a weaker dollar and further easing by Asian central banks could create favorable conditions for emerging markets to outperform developed markets [3] Sector Focus in China - The Chinese market is expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cut, with potential for increased liquidity and narrowing interest rate differentials [3] - Growth styles and small-cap stocks are likely to outperform in the short term, with a focus on technology sectors such as computing power, robotics, and supply chain industries [4]