25个基点！美联储时隔9个月重启降息 外部掣肘减弱 我国货币政策“以我为主”姿态更从容

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, which reduces external constraints on China's monetary policy and enhances its operational space and autonomy [2][3][4]. External Constraints - The Fed's rate cut alleviates external pressures on China's monetary policy, allowing for a more "self-directed" approach [3][4]. - The alignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. is expected to broaden China's policy space and enhance its autonomy [4]. - The depreciation of the dollar and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields following the Fed's decision have reduced pressure on the RMB exchange rate, further easing external constraints [4][5]. Internal Constraints - Internal factors, particularly the pressure on bank interest margins, pose a greater constraint on China's monetary policy than external factors [6]. - The narrowing of net interest margins for commercial banks, which fell to a new low of 1.42%, limits the space for further interest rate cuts [6][7]. - The need to maintain a reasonable net interest margin and avoid excessive liquidity that could lead to financial risks is crucial for the stability of the banking sector [6][7]. Future Outlook - There remains potential for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, as the current economic environment still faces challenges [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the People's Bank of China may lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in the latter half of the year to optimize liquidity [9][10]. - The focus of monetary policy will likely shift towards structural adjustments to stimulate effective demand and support key sectors, rather than relying solely on broad interest rate cuts [10].