美联储政策重心转向保就业

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year and signaling a shift in focus from inflation control to employment support [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Statements - The decision to cut rates reflects the Fed's growing concerns about a weakening labor market, with recent data indicating a loss of 911,000 jobs compared to previous estimates [1] - The Fed's policy statement removed previous language indicating a robust labor market, acknowledging rising unemployment and increased risks to employment [1][2] - Fed Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" in response to a complex economic environment, balancing the need for easing against persistent inflation [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market generally views the Fed's initiation of a new rate-cutting cycle optimistically, although there are concerns about the potential risks associated with global economic slowdown and high debt levels [3][4] - The median expectation among Fed officials suggests a further reduction of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, indicating a preference for gradual adjustments [3] Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The rate cut is expected to weaken the relative returns on dollar assets, potentially driving international capital towards emerging markets, which may benefit from lower financing costs [3][5] - However, the influx of capital could lead to inflated asset valuations and increased financial vulnerabilities in the long term [3][4] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The Fed's decision to cut rates while core inflation remains at 3.1% raises questions about the long-term value of the dollar and the sustainability of its status as a global reserve currency [4] - The current economic environment presents structural challenges, with high debt levels persisting despite temporary relief from lower rates [4][5] - The Fed's balancing act between controlling inflation, supporting employment, and responding to political pressures is more complex than in previous rate-cutting cycles [5]