智通财经网·2025-09-18 23:45Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to outperform the A-share market in the coming period, particularly focusing on core growth sectors such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and technology [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the end of June, the A-share market has shown better performance compared to the Hong Kong market, but A-shares have entered a consolidation phase in September, leading to increased volatility [1][2]. - The current long-cycle bull market in Hong Kong stocks, established in the fourth quarter of last year, is believed to be in the mid-stage, with liquidity and valuation cycles showing signs of improvement [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The liquidity cycle is approximately at the mid-point, with expectations of overall easing in the next 1-2 years [2]. - The valuation cycle indicates that after three years of bear market, Hong Kong stocks are currently at a low valuation, which has been recovering for over a year [2]. - The profit cycle is just beginning to recover from the bottom, with significant recovery concentrated in structurally favorable sectors [2]. Group 3: External Influences - The tightening of overseas liquidity, particularly due to the Federal Reserve's previous interest rate pauses, has been a major pressure point for the Hong Kong market [2]. - Recent U.S. employment data falling significantly below market expectations has raised the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which could quickly alleviate macro liquidity pressures in Hong Kong [2][3]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - Profit growth in the Hong Kong market is primarily driven by sectors with structural prosperity, such as raw materials, healthcare, information technology, and discretionary consumption, while real estate, energy, and conglomerates are still experiencing profit declines [2]. - The report emphasizes the need to focus on sectors that are currently thriving, as the overall valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market has been slow due to the drag from cyclical sectors [2]. Group 5: Capital Flows - Since June, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened in the currency market seven times, absorbing a total amount equivalent to 70% of the hot money inflow in May [3]. - There is an expectation of continued foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market and Chinese assets, particularly with Alibaba being a significant net inflow stock for southbound funds [3].