酚酮产业链：最艰难的时刻已过？

Core Viewpoint - The phenol ketone industry is expected to recover from losses as the supply-demand balance improves after a peak in production capacity expansion [1][5]. Supply Side Analysis - Since 2007, domestic phenol ketone capacity has consistently increased, with effective capacity rising from 1.039 million tons to 1.126 million tons by July 2025 [2]. - Major expansions occurred in 2012, 2015, and 2023, with a net increase of 7.87 million tons over the past decade [2]. - The trend towards larger and integrated production facilities has been noted, with significant projects like Zhejiang Petrochemical's 650,000-ton facility becoming the largest single-unit capacity in the country [3]. - The period from 2022 to 2023 saw a rapid development phase for phenol ketone facilities, reaching a peak in 2023 [4]. - Capacity growth is expected to slow down in 2024, with only 130,000 tons of new capacity projected [5]. - The supply side is anticipated to improve due to the slowdown in planned capacity expansions and the shutdown of older facilities [6][12]. Demand Side Analysis - The demand for phenol ketone's downstream products, particularly polycarbonate (PC) and bisphenol A, is expected to grow steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.95% for PC from 2019 to 2024 [14]. - Bisphenol A is positioned as a critical link in the phenol ketone supply chain, with a projected CAGR of 28.93% during the same period [14]. - Despite the anticipated growth in demand, the bisphenol A sector faces challenges due to intense competition, which may lead to project delays or cancellations [14]. Industry Outlook - The industry is transitioning into a phase of supply-demand structure optimization following years of rapid capacity expansion [14]. - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to further eliminate outdated capacities and enhance the industry's profit margins [10][13].