南非央行维持基准利率在7%不变

Group 1 - The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 7% to adopt a cautious stance amid inflation pressures, global uncertainties, and a bleak domestic economic outlook [1] - The monetary policy committee had six members, with four in favor of maintaining the rate and two advocating for a 25 basis point cut, aligning with market expectations [1] - SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago expressed confidence in achieving the 3% inflation target, although adjustments may take longer than anticipated [1] Group 2 - The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 0.9% to 1.2%, but export predictions have been downgraded from a growth of 2.6% to a contraction of 0.2% due to increased tariffs on South African goods by the U.S. [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate fell to 3.3% in August, with core inflation at 3.1% [1] - SARB projects average inflation rates of 3.4% and 3.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expectations to return to 3% by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of First National Bank highlighted that interest rates are just one factor affecting confidence, emphasizing the importance of improving income and employment [2] - Despite improvements in consumer confidence, business confidence remains low, indicating an overall negative sentiment [2] - SARB and the Treasury are working on establishing a new inflation target to stabilize expectations, with ongoing communication between the Governor and the Finance Minister [2]