美联储或连续降息，持续关注港股科技ETF（513020）

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting indicated a potential for further interest rate cuts, which could positively impact the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, due to its strong correlation with U.S. monetary policy [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 18, the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) opened with fluctuations and closed down by 1.57% [1]. - Historical data shows a strong correlation between the Hang Seng Index and the S&P 500, with a correlation coefficient close to 95% since 1964 [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4-4.25% and signaled the likelihood of additional cuts in October, with three cuts expected this year [2]. - Non-recessionary rate cuts historically lead to a strengthening of the Hang Seng Index, while recessionary cuts typically result in a decline for about three months before recovery [2]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to benefit significantly from the resumption of interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 88% in the sector over the 12 months following such cuts [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is home to key Chinese technology assets, often referred to as the "Silicon Valley of the East," with a balanced representation across various tech industries including internet, new energy vehicles, chips, and biomedicine [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which has shown long-term outperformance compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index since 2018 [4]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong is poised for substantial growth, supported by improved liquidity from interest rate cuts and a maturing business model among leading tech firms [4].