亚洲苯市场贸易格局演变

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term volatility, the price spread between benzene and naphtha is expected to return to a reasonable range in the long term, contingent on low benzene inventories in the U.S. [1] - Southeast Asia is anticipated to become a major source of benzene exports due to new production capacity, posing a challenge to Northeast Asia's traditional export status [1] - The price of benzene has seen significant fluctuations, dropping from an average spread of over $300/ton to around $150/ton, raising concerns about the future of the benzene industry [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the peak price spread between benzene and naphtha exceeded $500/ton, primarily driven by surging gasoline demand in the U.S. [1] - The price spread is projected to maintain between $160 and $250/ton by the end of 2026, indicating a reasonable range of fluctuations, although market volatility is expected to persist [1] - Northeast Asia remains the largest benzene exporter, but the shutdown of cracking facilities in South Korea and Japan is accelerating capacity consolidation [2]