J-Micro(SZ:300819) Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-09-19 02:51Core Viewpoint - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is experiencing significant growth driven by policy support, with a notable increase in SAF prices and demand projections for the future [1][2][3] Group 1: SAF Pricing and Demand - As of September 17, the high-end SAF FOB price in China reached $2,480 per ton, a 55% increase from $1,800 per ton at the beginning of the year [1][2][3] - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policies, with the EU maintaining a 2% SAF blending ratio for 2025 and a long-term target of 70% [2][3] - According to IATA, the demand for SAF is projected to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating a vast demand space [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Production Potential - There is a supply-demand gap in the European SAF market, with an expected consumption of 1.9 million tons this year against a production capacity of only about 1 million tons [2] - Chinese SAF production potential is significant, with domestic companies expected to establish over 1 million tons of SAF capacity by the end of 2024 [2] - Currently, there are over 10 million tons per year of HVO/SAF capacity either in operation, under construction, or planned in China, suggesting rapid future capacity growth [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The high cost of SAF compared to traditional jet fuel has led to a general reluctance among airlines to adopt SAF, despite the EU's stringent blending requirements [3] - Major European airlines have increased their SAF procurement mid-year, contributing to the rapid rise in SAF prices [3] - The company recommends investing in "Zhuoyue New Energy" and related SAF enterprises, highlighting Zhuoyue New Energy as a leading domestic biodiesel producer with significant SAF production capacity [3]