“快降息”与“慢降息” | 投研报告

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that if the market believes in the Federal Reserve's "slow rate cuts," it may lead to the effect of "fast rate cuts," and vice versa [1][2][3] - The significance of the recent FOMC meeting lies in showcasing the current "dovish" perspectives within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate expectations, especially with the introduction of new member Milan [1][2] - The divergence between the "dovish" and mainstream views within the Federal Reserve primarily revolves around the pace of rate cuts, with the "dovish" perspective advocating for "early and fast cuts," while the mainstream view supports a more gradual approach [2][3] Group 2 - Both the "dovish" and mainstream perspectives within the Federal Reserve acknowledge the risks of a rapidly cooling U.S. labor market, necessitating a relatively larger rate cut to mitigate these risks, although they differ in the timing and magnitude of the cuts [2][3] - The primary risk to the U.S. labor market is identified as stemming from the real estate sector, where employment in the construction industry has surpassed pre-subprime crisis levels and has shown significant growth post-pandemic, potentially exceeding the expansion rate of construction activities [2] - If high interest rates continue to suppress the U.S. real estate market, there may be a risk of job declines in this sector [2]