华泰研报解析寿险公司盈利能力： CSM表现与行业趋势

Core Insights - The report by Huatai Securities focuses on the profitability drivers of life insurance companies, particularly the impact of Contractual Service Margin (CSM) on profitability [1] - CSM represents unrealized expected profits and is a crucial component of life insurance contract liabilities, influencing annual performance alongside investment results [1] Group 1: CSM Trends and Performance - During the transition to new accounting standards from 2023 to mid-2025, there is a notable divergence in CSM growth among major listed insurance companies, with an overall slight decline in CSM scale despite a rebound in premium growth [3] - The report anticipates that CSM for Chinese listed insurance companies will recover at an annual rate of approximately 2% from 2025 to 2027, driven by new business growth [3] - China Life and Ping An maintain leading positions in CSM scale, while China People's Insurance and Sunshine Insurance, despite smaller scales, exhibit faster growth [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing CSM - Changes in CSM balance are primarily influenced by new business CSM, expected interest growth, adjustments in CSM estimates, and current amortization [4] - New business CSM is identified as a key factor affecting CSM balance, with recent data indicating that new business contributions to CSM have not kept pace with CSM releases, suggesting pressure on new business profitability [4] - Operational deviations negatively impact CSM, indicating that previous CSM measurements may have been overly optimistic and require adjustments over time [4] Group 3: CSM and Profitability Metrics - CSM release is a significant component of insurance service performance, with listed insurance companies releasing 7%-11% of CSM into insurance service performance annually [5] - In the first half of 2025, CSM releases accounted for 60%-180% of insurance service performance, with China Life at 180% and China People's Insurance at 60% [5] - The stable growth of CSM and its releases is deemed essential for the continuous improvement of life insurance profitability [5]