美降息落地叠加其他因素，可逢低关注红利资产——银华投顾每日观点2025.9.18

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% is expected to lead to short-term volatility in various asset classes, as they seek new pricing drivers post-cut, with fundamentals gaining importance in asset pricing [2][8] - Domestic economic indicators, including fiscal revenue and youth unemployment rates, have shown a decline, prompting an increase in policy expectations for the fourth quarter [1][2] - There has been a notable increase in insider selling, with executives reducing their holdings significantly, which may impact investor confidence and market momentum [1][4][6] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut aligns with expectations, with projections indicating a further reduction to a median of 3.6% by year-end, totaling a potential 75 basis points cut for the year [2][8] - Recent data shows a decline in national public budget revenue growth to 0.3% year-on-year, with August's growth rate at 2%, down from 2.6% in July [8] - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 has risen to 18.9%, the highest since December 2023, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [8] Market Behavior - The stock market has experienced significant insider selling, with executives selling a total of 10.87 billion yuan in the first 13 trading days of September, marking a historical high since new regulations were implemented [2][4] - The overall market sentiment has been affected by high valuations in certain sectors, leading to increased caution among investors regarding overvalued stocks [6] - The equity market saw a decline, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.15% [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to exercise caution and consider sectors with high dividends and low valuations, which typically offer more stable cash flows and defensive characteristics [6][1] - The focus on high-dividend ETFs is suggested as a potential strategy for investors seeking stability amidst market fluctuations [6]