英国央行QT踩刹车 英国国债收益率上升

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has announced a slowdown in its quantitative tightening (QT) measures, reducing the planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months, which is less than market expectations, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The adjustment in bond sales will see a shift in the structure, with short, medium, and long-term bonds being sold in a ratio of 40:40:20, aimed at alleviating pressure on the long-term bond market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose from 5.434% to 5.496%, indicating a market response to the reduced QT pace [2] - The pound against the dollar fell by 0.53%, closing at 1.3550, reflecting market sentiment after the Bank of England's decision [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank of England has slightly revised its third-quarter economic growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.4% [1] - Inflation expectations remain uncertain, with the central bank projecting a peak inflation rate of 4% this month, gradually declining to the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [2] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts have only modestly increased, with traders estimating a 37% probability for this year [2]