日本央行如期维持利率不变 但加息阵营崛起! 重磅官宣ETF抛售计划

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% amid ongoing global economic uncertainties and domestic political instability, while also announcing plans to begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was reached with a 7-2 vote, marking the first time since the current governor took office that there were dissenting votes on this issue [1]. - The dissenting members argued for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% due to rising inflation risks [1][4]. Group 2: ETF and J-REIT Sales - The BOJ plans to sell its ETF and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs) holdings at a pace of approximately 620 billion yen (around 4.2 billion USD) per year [4]. - This marks the first time the BOJ has mentioned plans to sell its ETF holdings, which are valued at approximately 37 trillion yen (about 251 billion USD) on a book value basis [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the ETF sales, the Japanese stock market showed signs of weakness, with the Nikkei 225 index declining by as much as 1.8% [4]. - The yen strengthened against the dollar after the announcement, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose slightly [4]. Group 4: Internal Dynamics and Future Outlook - The emergence of hawkish sentiments within the BOJ is indicated by the dissenting votes, suggesting a potential shift towards a more aggressive monetary policy stance [9]. - Analysts predict that the BOJ may begin to gradually sell off its ETF assets starting in the fiscal year 2026 to minimize potential losses and impacts on the Japanese stock market [8]. Group 5: Economic Context and Future Rate Hikes - Despite political uncertainties, there are indications that the BOJ may consider raising interest rates again by the end of the year if economic conditions remain favorable [10][11]. - A significant portion of market observers expect a potential rate hike in October, with many anticipating that the next increase could occur in January 2026 [11].