The Fed finally cut the federal funds rate. Will mortgages get cheaper?

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve (the Fed) plays a crucial role in shaping U.S. monetary policy, primarily through setting the federal funds rate, which influences various financial products, including mortgage rates [1][4][20] - The Fed's adjustments to the federal funds rate aim to balance economic growth and inflation, akin to managing water flow for crops [3][5] Federal Reserve Functions - The Fed controls the flow of money and credit in the economy by setting the federal funds rate, which serves as a benchmark interest rate affecting multiple economic sectors [4][20] - A lower federal funds rate encourages spending by making borrowing cheaper, while a higher rate discourages spending to prevent inflation [5][9] Impact on Mortgage Rates - Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, changes in the federal funds rate affect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which in turn influences mortgage rates [6][10] - Historical data shows that as the federal funds rate increased, the 10-year Treasury yield and average 30-year fixed mortgage rates also rose, indicating a correlation between these rates [9][10] Recent Trends - The federal funds rate was at a 23-year high since July 2023 but was lowered in late 2024, with the effective rate at 4.33% and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35% as of mid-September 2025 [6][9] - The relationship between the Fed's rate cuts and mortgage rates is complex, influenced by various economic factors beyond just the Fed's actions [12][18] Borrower Considerations - Borrowers are advised to focus on controllable aspects of the mortgage process, such as comparing lenders and interest rates, rather than worrying about the federal funds rate [14] - Adjustable-rate mortgages may be beneficial for first-time buyers as interest rates are anticipated to decline, while fixed-rate mortgages offer consistency for those valuing predictability [15][17]