The Art of the Deal (and the Tariff, and the Tweet) on Wall Street

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariffs - The introduction of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports in February 2025 led to modest gains in broader market indices, while domestic steel companies saw significant stock price increases [3] - Following the announcement of a doubling of tariffs to 50% in June 2025, futures markets dipped, but domestic steel companies like Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor experienced substantial pre-market gains [3] - A proposed 100% tariff on foreign-made films in May 2025 resulted in immediate losses for major Hollywood players, highlighting the potential contradictions in tariff impacts on different sectors [4] Group 2: Impact on Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors - Threats of tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors created volatility, with US-listed pharmaceutical stocks initially gaining but foreign counterparts suffering significant losses [5] - By April 2025, global pharmaceutical stocks experienced declines of 6% or more following tariff threats, indicating the broader market's sensitivity to trade policy [5] - President Trump's comments on drug pricing in May 2025 further impacted pharmaceutical stocks, demonstrating the uncertainty surrounding trade and policy [5] Group 3: Market Volatility and Recovery - The "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, led to a dramatic market crash, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 20% and wiping out approximately $6.6 trillion from the US stock market [6] - A subsequent "tariff pause" announced on April 9, 2025, resulted in a market surge, indicating investor relief and the potential for negotiation in trade policies [7] - Despite ongoing tariff threats, the US stock market reached new record highs in September 2025, attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and significant gains in the semiconductor sector [11][12] Group 4: Influence of Digital Communication - President Trump's use of Truth Social has shown to influence market sentiment, as seen with a declaration of an Iran-Israel ceasefire that positively affected Indian markets [9] - Even casual musings on Truth Social regarding quarterly earnings reporting have contributed to the ongoing policy uncertainty affecting market dynamics [10] Group 5: Overall Market Trends - Despite challenges from tariffs and a weak manufacturing sector, the US stock market has managed to defy expectations, with indices closing at record highs in September 2025 [11] - Analysts estimate that changes to US trade policy could subtract 0.4% from global GDP in 2025, yet the market continues to reach new highs, suggesting a complex relationship between trade policy and market performance [12]