局部地区供需矛盾仍然突出 沥青现货延续跌势

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with prices under pressure due to an oversupply and insufficient demand growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The main asphalt futures contract has shown low volatility this week, with a slight stabilization at the beginning but weakening again later in the week [1]. - The national average price of asphalt is reported at 3779.93 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.22 yuan/ton or 0.09% compared to the previous week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite a stable cost side supported by macroeconomic easing and rising oil prices, the supply of asphalt remains abundant while demand growth is not significant [1]. - The operating load rate of asphalt production facilities continues to rise, with September's production expected to reach a yearly high, contributing to a surplus in the market [1]. - Limited demand improvement in northern markets and overall weak demand in southern regions are leading to persistent supply-demand imbalances, which suppress price increases [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The forecast for the national average asphalt price is expected to range between 3750-3780 yuan/ton, indicating a continued downward trend from the current week [2].