需求回暖但宏观驱动转弱 铝价刷新年内高位后回落

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic aluminum prices have been observed, with a significant rise followed by a pullback, influenced by macroeconomic factors and steady demand [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened significantly higher on Monday, reaching a new annual high during the trading session [1]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price peaked at 21,020 yuan/ton, marking a new high for the year [1]. - As of September 18, the spot A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.53% but a year-on-year increase of 5.06% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% has positively impacted aluminum prices, with market expectations of three rate cuts this year [1]. - The recovery in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the plate, strip, and foil areas, has contributed to a positive outlook for aluminum prices [1]. - Despite a near 96% operating rate for domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and challenges in inventory reduction, the overall demand is showing signs of improvement, providing support for aluminum prices [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the demand for pre-holiday stockpiling will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate within the range of 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton next week [2].