Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing stricter measures to control pig production capacity due to ongoing supply pressures and declining pig prices, which have reached a new low since 2021 [1][2]. Supply Side - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that as of July 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal level [2]. - The third quarter saw a month-on-month increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with expectations for continued high slaughter volumes [2]. - Major pig farming companies are responding to the pressure by planning to reduce production, with Muyuan planning to cut 130,000 breeding sows by the end of the year, totaling a reduction of 320,000 heads [2][3]. - Current pig prices have dropped below 13 yuan per kilogram, leading to increased production cuts and intensified policy controls [2][3]. Demand Side - Despite being a traditional peak demand season, the demand for pigs remains weak, with market participants exhibiting a cautious attitude [3]. - The ongoing decline in pig prices has led to panic selling in the market, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3]. - Lower production costs for large-scale farming enterprises are affecting the pace of capacity reduction, making it difficult for pig prices to find support [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a weak state in the short term, with supply pressures likely to manifest in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - The key to stabilizing pig prices lies in the reduction of slaughter volumes, which may not be realized until the third quarter of 2026 [4]. - Seasonal demand during upcoming holidays may provide temporary support for slaughter rates, but overall, the market is anticipated to face challenges due to excess supply [5].
【财经分析】政策利好不断 生猪为何仍跌跌不休？
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-19 08:01