Colombia’s Oil Output Keeps Falling as U.S. Relations Sour

Core Insights - Colombia's oil and gas reserves may see an upward revision this year compared to 2024, but oil production is declining due to a challenging environment for the sector, social and security issues, and the withdrawal of international oil majors from Colombia [1] Group 1: U.S.-Colombia Relations - The investment climate in Colombia is expected to worsen following the U.S. stripping Colombia of its Drug Certification, indicating a lack of full cooperation in counter-narcotics efforts [2] - Relations between the U.S. and Colombia have deteriorated under President Trump, reaching a new low with the decertification due to Colombia's failure to combat drug trafficking effectively [3] - President Trump attributed the blame for the deteriorating situation to Colombia's leftist President Gustavo Petro, citing his inability to control narcotics groups and reduce coca cultivation [3] Group 2: Drug Production and Security - Under President Petro, coca cultivation and cocaine production have surged to record levels, with the government failing to meet its own coca eradication targets [4][5] - President Trump criticized Colombia's political leadership for not fulfilling drug control obligations, which has undermined years of cooperation against narco-terrorism [5] - Despite the political issues, U.S. officials praised Colombia's security institutions and local authorities for their efforts against criminal groups [6] Group 3: Implications for Oil Production - The loss of U.S. Drug Certification adds further challenges to Colombia's already declining oil production [6] - Colombia's Interior Minister indicated a shift in policy, stating that the country would no longer purchase weapons from the U.S. following the decertification [6]