中国7月减持美债257亿美元 仓位降至16年新低

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Department reported that foreign investors continued to increase their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a month-over-month increase of $31.9 billion, bringing the total to $9.16 trillion, marking the fifth consecutive month above $9 trillion [1][3] - Japan and the UK have been the top buyers, with the UK increasing its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, while Canada and mainland China have significantly reduced their holdings by $57.1 billion and $25.7 billion, respectively [1][3] Summary by Category Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds - As of July 2025, Japan holds $1.1514 trillion, an increase from $1.1476 trillion in June, while the UK holds $899.3 billion, up from $858 billion [2] - Mainland China's holdings decreased to $730.7 billion, the lowest since February 2009, following a reduction of $25.7 billion [3] Market Dynamics - Canada dropped from the fifth to the eighth largest holder of U.S. Treasuries after a significant reduction of $57.1 billion in July, following a volatile pattern of buying and selling in previous months [5] - Concerns over debt levels and tariffs have led to rising yields in the Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 13 basis points [5] Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, which may further elevate interest rates [6][7] - The bill's extension of tax cuts alone is expected to incur over $4.5 trillion in costs, contradicting IMF recommendations for the U.S. to reduce fiscal deficits [6] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade, security, and economic policies has shaken confidence in the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves slightly declining to 57.7% in Q1 2025 [8]