中国气电发电量占比仅3%，市场化机制成发展关键

Core Viewpoint - The development of natural gas power generation in China lags significantly behind global levels, with only 3.2% of electricity generated from gas compared to 43% in the US, 34% in Japan, and 16% in Europe, indicating substantial growth potential for gas-to-coal substitution in the domestic market [1][7]. Group 1: Current State and Future Potential - The demand for flexible power sources in China is immense, with a need to increase flexible resources from 700 million kilowatts to 2-2.5 billion kilowatts to accommodate large-scale integration of renewable energy [2]. - Gas power generation plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring electricity supply security and can help overcome the intermittency of renewable energy sources [3][4]. - The proportion of non-fossil energy in major GDP cities is generally below 20%, indicating significant room for growth, with cities setting ambitious targets for 2030 [4]. Group 2: Advantages of Gas Power Generation - Gas turbines offer rapid response and flexibility, with average start-stop cycles exceeding 300 times per year in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, which is unattainable for coal power plants [5]. - Natural gas power generation has a carbon emission intensity that is only half that of coal, making it a crucial measure for reducing carbon emissions [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the clear advantages and potential for gas power development, there are significant market challenges that need to be addressed for large-scale implementation [8]. - Current pricing policies for gas power generation in China have shortcomings, including a lack of relevant policies in many regions and the absence of a normalized pricing mechanism [9]. - The volatility of fuel costs poses a challenge, with global natural gas prices fluctuating significantly since 2021, complicating project cost predictions and extending payback periods [10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Market Development - To promote the market-oriented development of gas power generation, it is essential to improve pricing mechanisms and establish a "two-part tariff + gas-electric linkage" policy [10]. - Enhancing collaboration between natural gas suppliers and electricity companies is recommended to create an integrated supply chain that combines gas supply, power generation, and end-user consumption [10]. - The development of a collaborative model between gas power and renewable energy projects is encouraged to establish a diversified energy supply system based on clean gas [11].