可能又要创新高了

Group 1 - The core event of the week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, but Chairman Powell emphasized that policy decisions will be based on economic data and market changes, which did not signal a strong dovish stance and suppressed expectations for further easing [3] - The macro strategy is expected to maintain stable performance, with some managers potentially reaching new highs despite a generally calm state of various asset classes [2][3] - The correlation between bonds and commodities has increased, while the correlation between stocks and bonds has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The performance of quantitative long strategies is expected to show significant differentiation, particularly affecting managers with overly diversified holdings [6][9] - The market's overall volatility has slightly decreased compared to previous weeks, with average daily trading volume remaining around 2.5 trillion [8] - The ChiNext and STAR Market indices performed well, but the median performance of constituent stocks was poor, impacting the ability of quantitative managers to generate excess returns [10][12] Group 3 - The subjective long strategies are expected to perform well, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, new energy batteries, and automotive technology [16] - The liquidity indicators remain favorable, with the market sentiment returning to a neutral to slightly optimistic level [17][19] - The overall environment for subjective strategies is positive in the long term, although short-term volatility is anticipated to increase [19] Group 4 - The quantitative CTA strategies are expected to yield slight profits, with commodity markets showing mixed performance [20][21] - The market's overall volatility has increased across all categories, with a notable rise in trend strength for black and agricultural products [21] - The stock index CTA strategies are expected to show differentiated returns based on signal cycles, with high-frequency strategies potentially performing better [23] Group 5 - The market-neutral strategies are expected to show differentiated returns, with the excess stability of the CSI 500 index falling to near one-year lows, indicating a potential style shift [24] - The arbitrage strategies are anticipated to remain stable, supported by improved liquidity and slight increases in market volatility [25]