克而瑞：预计整体二手房市场热度仍将进一步回落

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities is experiencing a gradual decline in transaction volume, with a 9% month-on-month decrease in transaction area as of August, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall second-hand housing market is expected to further cool down, stabilizing at low levels due to increased listings and supply [1] - The traditional marketing peak in September will see new high-quality properties entering the market, which may divert some high-end customer demand from the second-hand market [1] - The transaction cycle may extend further if there are no significant price advantages, particularly affecting older properties in urban and suburban areas [1] Group 2: Listing Data - In August, the number of new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with Shanghai and Shenzhen seeing over 50% year-on-year growth [2][6] - Beijing had 17,959 new listings, a 7% month-on-month increase and a 33% year-on-year increase; Shanghai had 15,534 new listings, a 16% month-on-month increase and a 212% year-on-year increase; Shenzhen had 68,866 new listings, a 7% month-on-month increase and a 44% year-on-year increase; only Hangzhou saw a decline in new listings [2] Group 3: Price Segmentation - In Beijing, the number of new listings for properties priced below 500 million yuan has increased, with this segment accounting for over 60% of new listings [3] - In Shanghai and Shenzhen, the proportion of new listings in the 6-8 million yuan price range has significantly increased, with month-on-month growth of 0.37 percentage points and 0.93 percentage points, respectively [3] - Hangzhou shows a decline in the mid-price segment, while the low and high price segments have seen an increase in listings, indicating a "two-headed" market for demand [3] Group 4: Property Size Trends - The increase in new listings in the four cities is primarily concentrated in the 70-140 square meter range, with significant growth in the 90-120 square meter segment in Beijing, catering to family housing needs [5] - In Shanghai and Shenzhen, there is notable growth in both the mid-size and larger property segments, while Hangzhou has seen a rise in listings across smaller size segments [5] - Overall, the second-hand housing market in key cities shows a seasonal increase in new listings, but with significant differentiation among cities, particularly with Shanghai and Shenzhen showing strong year-on-year growth [6]