告别宽松？日本央行官宣减持ETF 释放政策正常化强烈信号

Core Points - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% and has initiated a historic move to start reducing its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs), marking a significant step towards exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The monetary policy committee voted 7 to 2 to keep the interest rate unchanged, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75%, indicating a rise in "hawkish" sentiment within the committee [2]. - The BOJ plans to reduce its ETF and J-REITs holdings by approximately 620 billion yen (around 4.2 billion USD) annually, which suggests a very gradual approach to minimize market disruption [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, influenced by government subsidies that reduced energy prices [4]. - Despite the overall CPI decline, the "core-core" CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, increased by 3.3%, indicating persistent underlying inflation pressures [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - BOJ Governor Ueda stated that if economic and price forecasts are met, the bank will continue to raise interest rates, emphasizing the need to monitor domestic and international economic conditions closely [5]. - Political uncertainties, including leadership changes and potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies, are considered significant factors in the BOJ's policy evaluation [6][7].