Stock Buybacks Have Slowed. Here's Why It Matters That They Could Bounce Back.

Core Insights - Stock buyback activity is expected to recover after a slowdown in the first half of 2025, with S&P 500 buybacks in Q2 falling 20% from record highs in Q1, but anticipated to increase in the current quarter [2][5] - Analysts indicate that buybacks may not significantly contribute to earnings per share (EPS) growth as they have in the past, with major companies showing no meaningful year-over-year growth in buybacks [3][4] - The S&P 500's buyback yield has reached its lowest level in 20 years, at around 2%, partly due to increased spending on artificial intelligence, which has reduced share repurchases [4][6] Buyback Activity Trends - The decline in buyback yield is expected to stabilize as repurchase activity increases, with estimates suggesting total share repurchases could reach $1 trillion this year, a 5% increase from 2024 [5][7] - Companies that consistently engage in buybacks, referred to as "buyback aristocrats," may benefit from a rising scarcity premium, showing larger market caps and higher year-to-date returns compared to the broader index [6][7]