Tariffs, Tinsel & Tight Budgets: Mastercard's Holiday Spend Forecast

Core Insights - Mastercard projects U.S. holiday retail sales (excluding autos) to rise 3.6% year over year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, 2025, down from a 4.1% gain last season [1][7] - Online sales are expected to increase by 7.9%, while brick-and-mortar sales are projected to see a modest 2.3% gain [1][7] Consumer Behavior - Shoppers are becoming more price-conscious due to inflation and tariffs, leading to earlier bargain-hunting and increased reliance on promotions and discounts [2] - Gift cards are gaining popularity as a cost-effective gift option in the current economic climate [2] - The labor market remains supportive, with steady wage growth cushioning consumer spending despite eased hiring momentum [2] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to raise costs for key holiday goods such as toys, apparel, and decorations, affecting household budgets [3][4] - Retailers' strategies in handling tariff-driven expenses will influence consumer spending patterns, with some shoppers opting for cheaper alternatives [3] Influence of Social Media - Social media is anticipated to significantly impact Gen Z's buying choices, affecting trends and purchasing timing [4] Payment Companies Outlook - Increased holiday spending is expected to boost transaction volumes for payment companies like Mastercard, Visa, and American Express [5] - Mastercard and Visa's significant market share in everyday spending categories may provide insulation from tariff-related uncertainties [5] - American Express is more exposed to affluent customers, which may cushion it during economic uncertainty, but could face volume declines if tariffs impact luxury categories [5] Mastercard's Financial Performance - Mastercard shares have gained 11.3% year to date, outperforming the broader industry's 4% growth [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 32.12X, higher than the industry average, and carries a Value Score of D [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard's 2025 earnings implies an 11.8% rise year over year, followed by 16.5% growth next year [10]