Can Novo Nordisk Hold Its Edge as the GLP-1 Battle With LLY Heats Up?

Core Insights - The global GLP-1 market is experiencing significant attention due to its multi-billion-dollar potential, primarily led by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly with their respective products targeting type II diabetes and obesity [1] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have intensified competition, with Eli Lilly's orforglipron showing superior results in A1C and body weight reduction compared to Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus, although orforglipron had higher discontinuation rates due to gastrointestinal side effects [2] - Novo Nordisk's Ozempic demonstrated a 23% reduction in the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared to Eli Lilly's Trulicity, along with a 25% reduction in a broader composite endpoint [4][10] - Novo Nordisk received EU approval to add cardiovascular benefits to the Rybelsus label, with a 14% reduction in MACE, while FDA review for a similar label expansion is pending [5] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $14.7 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for 52% of the company's total revenues, indicating a significant market share impact on Novo Nordisk [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock has underperformed, losing 28.1% year-to-date compared to the industry's 0.5% growth [8] Stock Valuation and Estimates - Novo Nordisk's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 15.43, higher than the industry average of 14.83, but significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [12] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased from $3.98 to $3.85 per share, and for 2026 from $4.56 to $4.07 over the past 60 days, indicating a downward trend in expectations [15]