可卖到11月底,旧车去库存明显加快

Core Insights - The implementation of the new electric bicycle safety technical standards (GB17761-2024) has led to a price increase for old standard bikes while new standard bikes are in short supply due to production delays [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Prices for old standard electric bicycles have generally risen since the new regulations took effect on September 1, with some models experiencing price increases of up to 200 yuan [2] - The inventory of old standard bikes is rapidly depleting, with only about 1,000 units available in Jinan, leading to increased consumer demand for these models [2][3] - The large base of registered electric bicycles in Jinan, exceeding 4.8 million, indicates strong replacement demand, further fueled by a three-month sales transition period until November 30 [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The supply shortage of new standard bikes is expected to last until late October due to production line adjustments and certification processes [3] - Many new bikes are still in production, and there is uncertainty regarding their marketability once available [3] Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The new regulations introduce stricter safety measures, including an automatic power cut-off for speeds exceeding 25 km/h and restrictions on battery modifications [3][4] - The cancellation of the pedal configuration requirement and an increase in the weight limit for lead-acid battery models from 55 kg to 63 kg are designed to enhance user convenience and battery capacity [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The new standards significantly raise the industry entry barriers, with 38 mandatory testing items related to battery safety and structural integrity, increasing compliance costs for small and medium enterprises [4] - The upgrade in production standards and the associated costs are expected to accelerate the industry consolidation process, favoring larger companies with established distribution channels [4]