Miran says he doesn't see tariffs causing inflation, putting him in minority on Fed committee

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran does not expect President Trump's tariffs to have a significant inflationary effect on the U.S. economy, differing from the majority opinion among Federal Open Market Committee voters [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inflation and Tariffs - Miran believes there is no material inflation resulting from tariffs, citing a lack of evidence and no significant difference in inflation rates between import-intensive core goods and overall core goods [2]. - He noted that if tariffs were driving inflation, one would expect to see a higher inflation rate in imports, which has not been observed [2]. Economic Outlook - Despite current inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, Miran anticipates stronger economic growth in the second half of the year, attributing weaker growth in the first half to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade and tax policies [3]. - He also predicts that Trump's immigration policies could lead to disinflation in the economy, suggesting that an influx of immigrants could initially drive up shelter prices, but closing borders could have a disinflationary effect [3][4]. Federal Reserve Board Appointment - Miran was confirmed to the Fed Board of Governors and will serve until January 31, 2026, while taking an unpaid leave from his position as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors [5].