“黑天鹅”，突袭！日元突然大幅走强

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to begin selling its domestic ETF holdings has led to significant market volatility, with the Japanese yen strengthening and Asian markets experiencing declines [1][2][5]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - The announcement of gradually selling domestic ETFs indicates a shift from the ultra-loose monetary policy era initiated during Abe's administration, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy [5]. - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before January next year, with a 58% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Bank of Japan's announcement, the Nikkei index dropped by 1.6%, and other Asian indices, including the Nifty 50 and Southeast Asian markets, also experienced declines [2]. - The strengthening of the yen has been a significant factor contributing to the volatility in equity markets [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite some signs of weakness, the Japanese economy is on a path of moderate recovery, with stable private consumption and moderate growth in capital expenditure [5]. - There are concerns that trade policies may slow down Japan's economic growth, but a rebound is expected thereafter [5]. Group 4: Impact of Currency Movements - The potential for yen appreciation due to the normalization of monetary policy could lead to a reversal of carry trade positions, impacting various markets [6]. - Historical data indicates that past reversals of yen carry trades have led to a decline in equity and commodity markets, alongside a weakening dollar index [6][7].