Crude Prices Slip as the Dollar Strengthens and Oil Supplies Remain Ample

Group 1: Ukraine's Impact on Oil Prices - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, leading to a reduction in Russian crude exports and tightening global oil supplies [1] - The attacks have halted approximately 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity, with significant damage reported at major refineries [1] - Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have reduced Russia's crude-processing runs to 4.98 million bpd, marking the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Better-than-expected US economic data has supported energy demand and crude prices, with initial unemployment claims falling by 33,000 to 231,000 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by 23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, surpassing expectations [2] Group 3: Global Oil Supply Concerns - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3] - OPEC+ has agreed to a modest increase in crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, which is less than previous increases [7] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Production - US crude oil inventories as of September 12 were reported to be 4.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, indicating tighter supply [8] - US crude oil production fell by 0.1% week-over-week to 13.482 million bpd, slightly below the record high [8] Group 5: Active Oil Rigs - The number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 416 rigs, remaining just above a 4-year low [9]