世贸组织报告指出：人工智能技术影响全球贸易格局

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report highlights the significant impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for multilateral cooperation to ensure inclusive growth rather than exacerbating disparities [1][5] Group 1: Opportunities and Potential of AI in Trade - AI technologies can enhance efficiency in various sectors such as consulting and R&D, potentially increasing global total factor productivity by an additional 0.68% annually [1] - By 2040, global trade is projected to increase by 34% to 37%, with global GDP rising by 12% to 13%, and trade in digitally deliverable services, including AI services, expected to grow by 42% [1] - AI can optimize supply chains, improve customs and compliance efficiency, reduce cross-border communication costs, and assist small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in entering international markets [1][2] Group 2: AI's Role in Market Participation - 90% of companies utilizing AI report trade benefits, with 56% indicating improved risk management capabilities [2] - AI can facilitate broader market participation, particularly benefiting SMEs and developing countries by overcoming barriers such as high compliance costs and insufficient market information [2] - The technology can provide new export opportunities for low-income countries through remote services and online applications [2] Group 3: Risks and Challenges Posed by AI - AI may exacerbate the digital divide, with high-income economies having advanced capabilities compared to low-income countries, potentially leading to a 14% income growth in high-income countries versus only 8% in low-income countries by 2040 [3] - The disparity in AI adoption rates, with over 60% in large enterprises compared to 41% in small enterprises, highlights the challenges faced by lower-income economies [3] - AI's impact on labor markets could threaten jobs in sectors like translation and customer support, which are crucial for low-income countries' export opportunities [3] Group 4: Policy Recommendations for Inclusive Growth - Countries are urged to prepare policies, infrastructure, and capacity building to support AI development, including maintaining low tariffs and open markets [4] - Investment in education and training programs for AI, as well as improvements in data governance and infrastructure, are essential to bridge the skills gap [4] - Support for SMEs in AI adoption and a balanced approach to intellectual property and competition policies are necessary to prevent market concentration [4] Group 5: Importance of International Cooperation - The report stresses the need for enhanced international cooperation in AI governance, particularly in trade-related aspects, to avoid regulatory fragmentation [5] - Inclusive collaboration should involve both high-income and low-income countries in the global AI governance framework [5] - Strategic actions today will determine AI's future impact, with proactive measures potentially transforming AI into a driver of global trade and inclusive growth [5]