Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, indicating that more cuts may follow to support a struggling labor market [1][10] - The Fed's rate cut is expected to benefit interest-rate sensitive sectors, particularly small-cap stocks and consumer discretionary shares, with homebuilders being a notable beneficiary [2][10] - The S&P 500 reached record high levels, up over 13% year-to-date, following the Fed's decision to cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to the 4-4.25% range [2][11] Group 2 - The PHLX Housing index has increased by 15% this quarter, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of over 7%, although it still lags behind on a year-to-date basis [5][11] - Major homebuilders such as DR Horton, KB Home, and Toll Brothers have seen significant gains, with DR Horton up over 30% and both KB Home and Toll Brothers up over 20% this quarter [5][11] - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot have also performed well, with increases of approximately 20% and 13% respectively this quarter [5][11] Group 3 - The contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to 6.39%, the lowest since early October 2024, with projections suggesting it could approach 6% by year-end [6][11] - The housing market is currently facing challenges, with single-family homebuilding dropping to a near 2.5-year low in August, indicating weakness in the sector [11] - Investors are hopeful that lower mortgage rates could revitalize the housing market, with a target of bringing rates down to the 5% range being seen as crucial [7][11] Group 4 - The relationship between the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates is complex, as mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which was around 4.13%, down from 4.6% in May [8][11] - Upcoming economic data, including existing and new home sales, will provide further insights into the housing market, with a good housing turnover being beneficial for overall economic activity [9][11] - The Fed's approach to rate reductions remains uncertain due to persistent inflation, which could lead to volatility in economic data related to the labor market and inflation [9][11]
Wall Street Week Ahead-US housing shares shine as Fed restarts rate cuts