经观头条｜创新药牛市没拉动一级市场

Core Insights - The innovation drug industry is experiencing a dichotomy between a booming secondary market and a struggling primary market for financing [4][16][23] - Despite increased interest from investors, the financing environment remains challenging, with many biotech companies facing long delays in securing funding [3][9][16] Industry Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, stock prices of listed innovative drug companies have rebounded, with over 60 companies seeing their stock prices double [4] - A survey indicated that 60% of biotech leaders believe the primary market has emerged from its lowest point, but conditions are still not ideal [4][9] - In the first half of 2025, there were 188 financing events in the domestic innovative drug primary market, a 7.4% year-on-year decline, with total financing amounting to approximately $1.58 billion, down 24.5% year-on-year [4] Financing Challenges - Many biotech founders report difficulties in securing funding, with one entrepreneur stating that they needed to engage with at least 100 institutions to attract investment [3][9] - A significant portion of biotech companies (63%) reported that financing progress is "not very smooth" or "very difficult" [9] - The primary barriers to financing include high professional barriers and stringent financing conditions, such as onerous agreements [9] Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly cautious, focusing on companies' commercialization capabilities rather than just scientific potential [10][11] - There is a noticeable shift in investor logic, with a greater emphasis on achieving milestones and providing clear pathways for success [11][12] - Investors are particularly interested in companies nearing IPO stages, as these represent more immediate opportunities for returns [15] Exit Strategies - The current exit environment remains challenging, with many investors indicating that exit channels are not smooth [16][19] - The pressure for exits is compounded by the need for funds to return from previous investments, which has created a bottleneck in the market [16][19] - Innovative exit strategies, such as BD transactions, are becoming more common, although they often do not lead to complete exits [20] Future Outlook - There is a concern that the current wave of BD transactions may lead to a gap in future investment opportunities due to insufficient funding for new projects [22] - Investors believe that a recovery in the primary market will depend on improved policy and market conditions, as well as successful outcomes in the secondary market [23][24] - The industry faces a potential decline in entrepreneurial activity, with a shift in focus from investing in companies to investing in specific drug pipelines [24]