王庆：市场有望迎来一轮结构性“慢牛”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a structural "slow bull" phase, driven by policy support, technological innovation, and improved corporate governance, following a significant turning point on September 24, 2022 [1][2][5]. Economic Analysis - The Chinese stock market has shifted from lagging behind to leading among major global markets since the beginning of 2023, with internal factors being the primary drivers of this change [2][3]. - Historical comparisons with the U.S. 2008 financial crisis and Japan's 1990s real estate bubble indicate that while China faces challenges from a real estate bubble, it has avoided a financial crisis and the emergence of "zombie" companies [2][3]. Policy Impact - The Chinese government has implemented a comprehensive set of policies, including monetary and fiscal easing, and significant structural reforms, particularly in addressing local government debt [3][4]. - The largest debt relief policy in history was announced at the end of last year, which is likened to the U.S. government's capital injection into financial institutions during the 2008 crisis, facilitating economic normalization and a major market reversal [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market has completed a mean reversion process over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2,700 points to recent highs, indicating a potential for further upward movement [6][4]. - The focus on shareholder returns has increased, with more companies emphasizing dividends, leading to a positive shift in net shareholder return rates [3][4]. Future Outlook - The market is unlikely to experience a "crazy bull" phase, but rather a "slow bull" trend, as the economy transitions to a high-quality development stage [5][6]. - External factors, such as a weaker dollar and global liquidity easing, have also contributed to the positive performance of the Chinese stock market [7].